Monday, November 11, 2013

Time to Tank Up With Oil?

Oil has a seasonal tendency to peak in September and trough in early December. The period for positive seasonality (green shading) is now close at hand (data from Stock Trader's Almanac).

Sentiment follows the same pattern. It's now at a low where crude oil prices have tended to move higher (data from Sentimentrader).

Using USO as an example, price found a temporary base where prior volume was heaviest (yellow shading). The MACD is getting set to cross positive. Note the significant resistance 2% higher, above which is a volume pocket through which price could move quickly.

This is part of larger investment thesis: if macro growth is truly beginning to strengthen then some commodities should also move up based on increased demand. The CRB has been notably weak, including industrial metals and energy. We are skeptical but maintain an open mind.

The downside risk is that oil falls into a bear market (greater than 20% fall). In this case, the average fall is 34% and the average duration is 108 days, both about twice current levels (data from Bespoke).